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“With the iPhone launch expected in around three months, we think it is instructive to review Apple’s relative price performance in the periods before and after an iPhone launch,” Daryanani writes. “In past launches, the greatest average outperformance has come during the 180 day period leading to the launch. The 90 day period prior to the launch has also generated solid outperformance with lower volatility than the 180 day period. The 30- and 90-day periods following a launch have underperformed on average, although the dispersion of results here is far wider than in the periods prior to the launch.”
The analyst notes that relative performance seems at least partially tied to the strength of the cycle, “with the iPhone 6, X and 11 outperforming across most time periods.”
His core conclusion is that Apple stock has historically been a good investment prior to iPhone launches, and Evercore sees no reason for that to change now.
To read the rest of the Barrons article, click here.
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